Low-emissions fuels are essential for meeting maritime decarbonization targets and regulatory requirements. Yet, production infrastructure is underdeveloped for many of these fuels, but specifically for e-fuels, limiting fuel availability and creating price uncertainty. Accelerated investment in low-emissions fuel production and distribution is critical to closing this gap.
Producers need bankable offtake agreements to secure funding and financing for fuel production plants. These agreements would enable the supply of low-emissions fuels at the volumes that are required to transform the sector. However, the maritime sector is unaccustomed to such long-term offtake agreements and is a highly fragmented industry, with diverse vessel types, ownership structures, and operating models, which complicate coordinated action and investment. This mismatch creates a stalemate: no investment from offtakers* due to uncertain supply, and no supply because producers lack secured offtake.
Stakeholders must adopt innovative approaches to break this stalemate and enable investment that supports the broader deployment of low-emissions fuels in the mid- to long-term. These approaches could include new contracting models, cross sector partnerships, and policy frameworks that de-risk early investments. The new models and partnerships must at all times operate in full compliance with competition law.
The Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) has explored fuel demand aggregation to understand whether consolidating demand across multiple offtakers can help overcome these challenges faced by fuel producers and maritime end-users. The work is based on previous studies
We conceptualized and designed a Fuel Demand Aggregator (FDA), a dedicated independent entity or structure that can facilitate coordination and aggregation of demand across the maritime value chain. The FDA serves as a central interface between fuel producers and maritime stakeholders, helping to unlock early commercial-scale production by providing clearer market signals, reducing investment risk, and enabling long-term offtake agreements. In compliance with competition law, the FDA ensures that competitively sensitive information is not disclosed among participants and limits coordination to what is necessary to aggregate bankable volumes for upstream investment.
This report presents the main findings on the concept of fuel demand aggregation and the concrete FDA structure, outlining the processes and mechanisms designed to enable it. A review of the potential issues around competition law is also highlighted. The report provides an overview of next steps and collaboration avenues for private and public actors in the low-emissions fuels space.
* Offtakers are, in this context, organizations or industries that purchase the low-emissions fuels (e.g., vessel operators), or from other industries (e.g., the fertilizer industry) where the molecules are used in products.
Figure 1: The FDA coordinates between fuel producers (upstream) and the vessel operators (downstream). Logistics and bunkering (midstream) will also be handled in the FDA as part of the cluster formalization. Details of the FDA operational design are described further in the document.
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Fonden Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (“MMMCZCS”) for informational purposes only.
The content herein is based on studies, research, and analyses conducted by MMMCZCS, as well as publicly available information as of the date of publication. While MMMCZCS has made every effort to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information presented, it does not guarantee or warrant, either expressly or impliedly, the completeness, accuracy, or suitability of this information for any specific purpose.
The publication is not intended to serve as technical, regulatory, legal, or other advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with their own advisors before making any decisions or taking actions based on the information contained herein. Compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and standards, including but not limited to those related to safety, environmental protection, design requirements, and competition law, remains the sole responsibility of the reader.
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