Fuel Options Position Paper

Published — October 11, 2021

The purpose of this paper is to provide supporting documentation to the 2021 Industry Transition Strategy, detailing particularly assumptions and aspects on the cost, availability and uptake of future fuels. It is not the purpose of the paper to predict the future fuel blend but rather to make plausible that already today, we can identify plausible/possible ways of decarbonizing, noting that the future will be different and most likely include solutions that are more cost-effective than assumed in the present paper.

Several fuels are assumed support the transition. The present analysis only includes a sub-set of possible known fuels, and more fuels could develop in the future. The real future fuel blend will be – among other aspects such as national and global politics - dependent on future fuel pathway constraints on primary energy, technology maturation, and technology cost down. The fuel blend will also depend on regulation and on-board energy efficiency. This paper investigates scenarios related to these selected techno-economic fuel pathway constraints

This report should NOT be used to identify one scenario as a prediction of the future. Rather the different shown scenarios and sensitivities should be considered as a portfolio of results helping to illustrate possibilities, implications, sensitivities, limitations, dependencies and that the future fuel blends could look very different depending on the many socio-techno-economic developments along the way. Specifics around individual fuels are covered in the respective separate fuel position paper