Underpinning shipping’s green transition is the challenge that alternative fuels such as green methanol and green ammonia are inherently more costly to produce than their fossil counterparts such as HFO, LSFO and LNG. These alternative fuels are not cost competitive and there are no, or very few, cargo owners who today are willing to pay the required green premiums which would stimulate investment in green fuel projects.
Looking into the future, alternative fuels may eventually become cost competitive if we see two things happen:
Adequate regulatory cost attached to emissions, thus increasing cost of fossil fuels
Alternative fuel production projects being realized, thus providing learnings and subsequent cost reductions on future projects
The inherent challenge for green corridors: Fossil fuel vs. alternative fuel (illustrative)
While regulations will play a pivotal role in aiding the cost competitiveness of alternative fuels in the future, they do not make them commercially viable today, but without alternative fuel production projects happening today there will be no learnings and cost downs to make future projects cheaper. For the maritime industry to decarbonize by 2050, alternative fuel projects must happen as soon as possible.
To stimulate private investment in this pre-commercial landscape, public funding is thus required to make these very first projects cost competitive. These first projects are what we refer to as green corridors – “early projects [that] can help catalyse the decarbonisation of the wider maritime industry by testing the feasibility of zero emission technologies and fuels whilst also spurring the formation of new supply chains and investment in associated infrastructure”.[1]In essence, not projects that will be realized in 2040 when sustainable maritime fuel may be mature and regulations add significant cost to fossil fuels, but specifically the projects with the ambition of being realized in the immediate future when the private sector is unable to cover these incremental costs and risks alone. Ways of sharing the cost can be obtained by long-term offtake agreements and/or aggregating tech fuel demand.
But it is not sufficient simply to say, “public funding is required”. Clarity is needed on exactly how much public funding is needed after taking into account cost management from the commercial stakeholders, impacts of regulation, and the consideration for some amount of green premium being paid by the cargo owner. Putting numbers to these factors, derived and communicated in a clear and transparent manner, is the objective of Green Corridor cost modelling.
