Underpinning shipping’s green transition is the challenge that alternative fuels such as green methanol and green ammonia are inherently more costly to produce than their fossil counterparts such as HFO, LSFO and LNG. These alternative fuels are not cost competitive and there are no, or very few, cargo owners who today are willing to pay the required green premiums which would stimulate investment in green fuel projects.
Looking into the future, alternative fuels may eventually become cost competitive if we see two things happen
Adequate regulatory cost attached to emissions, thus increasing cost of fossil fuels
Alternative fuel production projects being realized, thus providing learnings and subsequent cost reductions on future projects
The inherent challenge for green corridors: Fossil fuel vs. alternative fuel (illustrative)
While regulations will play a pivotal role in aiding the cost competitiveness of alternative fuels in the future, they do not make them commercially viable today, but without alternative fuel production projects happening today there will be no learnings and cost downs to make future projects cheaper. For the maritime industry to decarbonize by 2050, alternative fuel projects must happen as soon as possible.
To stimulate private investment in this pre-commercial landscape, public funding is thus required to make these very first projects cost competitive. These first projects are what we refer to as green corridors – “early projects [that] can help catalyse the decarbonisation of the wider maritime industry by testing the feasibility of zero emission technologies and fuels whilst also spurring the formation of new supply chains and investment in associated infrastructure”[1]. In essence, not projects that will be realized in 2040 when sustainable maritime fuel may be mature and regulations add significant cost to fossil fuels, but specifically the projects with the ambition of being realized in the immediate future when the private sector is unable to cover these incremental costs and risks alone. Ways of sharing the cost can be obtained by long-term offtake agreements and/or aggregating tech fuel demand.
But it is not sufficient simply to say, “public funding is required”. Clarity is needed on exactly how much public funding is needed after taking into account cost management from the commercial stakeholders, impacts of regulation, and the consideration for some amount of green premium being paid by the cargo owner. Putting numbers to these factors, derived and communicated in a clear and transparent manner, is the objective of Green Corridor cost modelling.
Introduction to Cost Model
Introduction to Cost Model
Model Use Cases
The Green Corridor Cost Model has been developed to be a tool that will accompany and inform projects throughout the lifetime of their feasibility assessment with the accuracy of the output increasing as more inputs which were previously model assumptions are replaced with real data from commercial stakeholders.
Model Use Cases Figure
Depending on the maturity level (ML) of a Green Corridor Project, we have used the output of the model to garner value in different ways.
Maturity Level 1
Modelling a green corridor and the end of pre-feasibility where only the very basics are known: Type of fuel, Type of Vessel/Cargo and high level view of ports in scope. The value the model brings here is that in can estimate the quantity of fuel required for the corridor, the subsequent CO2 reductions, and a high-level view of the overall cost based upon public available assumptions. These output can be particularly useful when scoping a potential green corridor project, or agreeing on a project baseline within a consortium.
Maturity Level 2
At this stage the project baseline has been agreed by the consortium, as the project goal are defined. Knowledge on the lifetime of the corridor, the quantity of cargo being transported, the quantity of fuel being consumed on the corridor exists, but costs from stakeholders remain unknown, as no data is shared in this pre-NDA time. By refining the input based upon the agreed baseline, the model gives a more accurate output of CO2 reduction and incremental cost (total and per cargo unit) which can be used as reference point for conversation. This allows consortium members to make their final decision as to whether they want to invest the needed hours in the feasibility study.
Maturity Level 3
Generic assumptions stored in the model are replaced by inputs from consortiums stakeholders as their feasibility study progresses. At this stage a more refined outlook on the incremental cost gap is provided, as well as an assessment of the impact of regulations. Using the principal output of the model, the visualisation of the residual cost gap, assists projects in facilitating conversation around Consortium Cost Management. At this point, the model may consist of a mixture of generic data for those workstreams not finalized and project specific costs for those areas where the workstream maturation is more matured.
Maturity Level 4
All detailed model inputs have now been provided by the commercial stakeholders in the Green Corridor consortium. After a thorough review, and agreement on the level of granularity acceptable to be made available, the output of the model can be used to communicate with external stakeholders, including governments, on the funding that is required to realize the green corridors. The ML 4 is a key input for the Strategic Investment Brief. The model also provides a high-level calculations on GDP Impact and Job Creation (in construction as well as in operation) from the corridor project, should the project pass FID.
Understanding the Output
Five levers to close the cost gap of green corridors (illustrative)
Green shipping corridors projects must be able to cover costs to become operational. “Without a considerable level of willingness to pay for green shipping from costumers, or regulations and measures that either oblige or support early mover adoption of zero emission fuels, this cost gap presents the most critical obstacle to the execution of these projects”[4]. The Mærsk McKinney-Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping has developed a Green Corridor Cost Model and has identified several measures, which, combined, may be able to close the cost gap generated by the higher cost of alternative fuel.
The measures are being assessed by the individual green shipping corridor consortia in the feasibility phase:
A
Banks and financial institutions can provide optimized financing through better loan terms, e.g., lower interest and guarantees. This may be achieved where the projects can demonstrate its sustainable benefits.
B
Governments and other regulatory bodies can introduce regulations such as CO2 pricing, other carbon restrictions, and other non-competitive measures that can play a vital role in closing the cost gap. Supporting mechanisms such as tax incentives, and hydrogen production incentives also contribute. The areas covered here has to be independent of specific project application but be setups where any project is eligible for funding/penalties.
C
Cargo owners and end-customers must pay green premiums for low-carbon transportation. It is easier to allocate some of the cost to the end-customer if the cargo is close to the end-user, such as with car carriers, ferries, and cruises, as it enables transparency on willingness to pay. Similarly, a homogeneous cargo enables transparency in allocating the premium, e.g., raw material, ferries/cruises, car carriers, and liquid bulk. Regarding cargo owners, a group of front-runners has indicated that they are willing to pay a premium of between 10 and 25 percent for sustainable logistics services. Cost can also come done, if cross-sectoral collaboration can be obtained. Ultimately, all the cost related to sustainable transportation has to be ascribed to the cargo, allowing the added cost to land at the consumers.
D
The value chain can actively manage part of the project's cost. Fuel producers can deliver fuel at reduced costs by aggregating fuel demand with other off-takers and therefore benefit from economy-of-scale. Port infrastructure costs can be shared across more corridors/users. For vessels, a batch order would potentially lower the unit cost, as well as the learnings from dual-fuel engines may help the vessel owner/operator cover part of the cost.
E
Governments must provide public funding, such as grants and direct subsidies, which play a significant role in closing the cost gap and are the last resort when the previous areas have been explored. This is a well-known method for stimulating/enabling new pre-commercial industries. Governments should consider the socio-economic benefits of green shipping corridors when evaluating funding requests, e.g., job creation, positive GDP impact, and contribution to decarbonization ambitions. It is the experience of the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller for Zero Carbon Shipping that it is easier to obtain public funding for green shipping corridors from countries with a strategic commitment to maritime and climate initiatives. These countries already have funding options or understand what is required to enable decarbonization projects. Furthermore, projects with a documented and positive sustainability impact will have greater chance of attracting funding. See section on Sustainability/Just & Equitable.
Model (Generation 1) outputs: Externalities (GDP-effects and jobs) are calculated based on investments
Alongside the waterfall diagram, the cost model produces a table to put numbers on externalities like GDP and job creation that the Green Corridor will generate if realized. The externalities tables are derived through a combination of user inputs and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Input-Output tables. Multipliers are derived from OECD IO tables via Leontief’s approach. The externality-analysis combines Initial effects (sector operations) and Direct effects (tier-1 suppliers), excluding Indirect and Induced effects, to capture non-induced supply chain impacts.
Impacts calculated are limited to short-term activities like construction, calculated using sector multipliers. There are three key assumptions made while using these multipliers:
Fixed ratios: Inputs scale proportionally with output, as reflected in multipliers
No price changes: Ignores supply constraints, which may limit calculated impacts
Static data: Assumes uniform production and excludes technological- or time-based changes
Do you have any feedback or suggestions for future functionalities of the Cost Model? Feel free to reach out to us on gc.costmodel@zerocarbonshipping.com
Creo Dominador CSP, Chile
Solar power is going to be a crucial element for the green transition.