Navigate is a simulation model developed to forecast possible decarbonization pathways for the maritime industry. The Center has built the model to evaluate how different technologies and regulations can contribute to making informed choices, investments, and reducing carbon emissions.

Shipping's decarbonization is determined by decisions made across the value chain every day: which fuels are purchased, which technologies are installed, how fast vessels operate, and when investments are made. Navigate simulates these decisions across the global fleet, enabling shipowners, operators, and fuel producers respond to changing costs, policies, and fuel supply. From this vast number of individual choices, the model derives a composite view of how the global maritime industry might evolve over the coming decades.

Navigate addresses questions such as: What are the likely effects on emissions and costs if a given regulation takes effect? Which fuels are likely to scale, and within what timeframe? Where might progress stall due to insufficient technology or fuel supply readiness?

Because the model covers the entire maritime industry, it is used to construct sector-level outlooks rather than strategies for individual companies. Its outputs are always contingent on the underlying assumptions, and are therefore to be treated as informed projections of what could occur under a specified set of conditions.

The process of sound decision-making is facilitated when all parties operate from a common set of facts. Discussions regarding the future of shipping are frequently constrained by disagreement over the validity of underlying data, rather than by substantive dialogs on what actions to take. Navigate was made open-source to address this constraint by providing the maritime industry with a transparent, common foundation that can be examined, questioned, and built upon.

As the code and its underlying assumptions are freely available, any party may verify how results are derived, test them against alternative assumptions, and identify potential errors or limitations. This scrutiny contributes to the model’s continued improvement, and is intended, over time, to foster a community engaged in refining both the model and its assumptions. The objective is a shared understanding of the relevant facts, allowing the industry to direct its efforts toward decisions rather than toward disputes over the facts informing them.

Originally developed internally, Navigate is now open source, and its use is encouraged. Parties are invited to examine the code, scrutinize the assumptions, and challenge its findings. Those who identify errors or limitations, or who wish to test alternative assumptions, are invited to contact us. Navigate improves through the engagement of those who use and question it, we welcome new contributors and collaborators who wish to contribute to its ongoing development.